New nuke test 'unlikely'

By Sun Wei

South Korea Tuesday dismissed a local television report that Pyongyang was preparing for a third nuclear test.

"If North Korea was making such preparations, there would be related circumstances that can be detected ... there is no intelligence on such circumstances," Reuters quoted South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan as saying.

South Korean YTN TV, quoting an unidentified diplomatic source in Beijing, said yeserday that North Korea began preparing in February for a third nuclear test, possibly in May or June.

The preparations involve a level of technical proficiency that is significantly upgraded from the first two tests, considered partial successes at best, it added. But it will decrease its supply of fissile material, thought to be enough for six to eight nuclear bombs.

"A third nuclear test is implausible," Lü Chao, an expert on North Korea at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times, adding it is not likely that Pyongyang will launch nuclear tests when the whole world is discussing nuclear weapon disarmament.

"North Korea strives to develop its agriculture and light industries and produce higher-quality consumer goods, as outlined in its New Year message," Lü said.

"The alleged third nuclear test would only invite more sanctions," he said, adding that it might be a conjecture by South Korea as tensions were raised between the two.

A South Korean naval ship exploded and sank last month near a contested sea border with North Korea, killing 46.

South Korea is looking into whether North Korea attacked the ship, with local media saying the government is weighing whether a military response may be needed.

North Korea, scrutinized by US spy satellites, can easily signal it is preparing for a test by moving equipment, but that does not mean a blast is imminent, analysts said.

Pyongyang has boycotted international nuclear disarmament talks for over a year and put conditions on its return that include ending UN sanctions imposed after its last test in May that dealt a severe blow to its feeble economy.

Leader Kim Jong-il is expected to soon depart for China for talks, which are widely seen as trying to revive the dormant six-country nuclear talks hosted by Beijing.

"It is logical reasoning," Lü said, adding that the relationship between China and North Korea has been repaired comprehensively since Premier Wen Jiabao visited Pyongyang in October.

Agencies contribute to the story